Medway Council projects a £65.9m shortfall for 2027/28 and £359.3m over four years, led by adult social care. It says it will need more emergency government support.

Medway Council expects to be £65.858 million short of what it needs to run services in 2027/28. Over the four years to 2030/31, the projected gap adds up to £359.314 million.

The figures come from the council’s Medium Term Financial Outlook, which the Cabinet noted on 22 September. The report says the gap “cannot be balanced through the use of reserves”. It assumes the council will again need exceptional financial support from the government.

The quick answer

  • 2027/28 gap: £65.9m, on a projected budget requirement of £596.9m.
  • Four-year total: £359.3m, rising each year to £111.4m in 2030/31.
  • Biggest pressure: adult social care, up £38.6m in a single year.
  • This year is already over: the first 2026/27 forecast showed a £26.7m overspend, against general reserves of about £10m.
  • What happens next: a draft budget goes to Cabinet in November and the final budget to Full Council in February 2027.

The gap, year by year

Bar chart of Medway Council's projected budget gap: £65.9 million in 2027/28, £81.8 million in 2028/29, £100.2 million in 2029/30 and £111.4 million in 2030/31, totalling £359.3 million.
Projected gap between spending and funding each year. Chart by Medway Live from Medway Council's Medium Term Financial Outlook 2026-2031, Table 1.
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Year Projected spending Projected funding Gap
2027/28 £596.9m £531.1m £65.9m
2028/29 £635.0m £553.2m £81.8m
2029/30 £667.2m £566.9m £100.2m
2030/31 £695.4m £584.1m £111.4m

Source: Medway Council, Medium Term Financial Outlook 2026-2031, Table 1.

Where the money is going

Adult social care is the largest single pressure. Its budget has to rise from £114.5m this year to £153.1m in 2027/28, according to the report. The main driver is the cost of care packages for people already receiving support, which is projected to rise by £18.7m. The projections already assume £8.9m of savings from the council’s adult social care recovery programme. The report warns that saving depends on how fast the programme can be delivered.

Other pressures in 2027/28 include:

  • Children’s social care: up £9.2m. The report projects 50 more placements, costing £2.2m. So far in 2026/27 there are 21 children in external residential placements costing between £6,001 and £9,000 a week.
  • Interest and financing: up £8m, from £24.7m to £32.7m, which the report links to this year’s shortfall and forecast rises in interest rates.
  • SEND school transport: up £1.2m, on projected growth of 9%.
  • Pay: the projections assume a 3% pay award.

How the council has been getting by

Medway has already relied on the government’s exceptional financial support scheme. This lets a council borrow, or sell assets, to cover day-to-day costs. The report sets out how it has been used:

  • 2025/26: the council overspent by £9.8m. That took its borrowing under the scheme for the year to £28.0m, within the £28.2m the government agreed in principle.
  • 2026/27: the budget was balanced with £9.9m of the same support.
  • 2026/27, first forecast: a projected overspend of £26.7m, reported to Cabinet on 4 August. That is well above the council’s general reserve. The report gives that reserve as £10.12m in one section and £10.012m in another.

The report’s risk table covers what would happen if the government said no. In that event, the council’s chief finance officer “may be forced to issue a Section 114 notice”, which bars new spending commitments beyond statutory services. The council rates that outcome as unlikely.

The Deputy Leader has written to the Health and Social Care Secretary asking for extra grant funding for adult social care. The Chief Operating Officer is in talks with the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government about further support.

What it means for you

  • Council tax. The report assumes the government keeps the current limits: a council can raise core council tax by up to 3% and add up to 2% for adult social care without a referendum. It projects council tax income of £191.7m in 2027/28, up from £183.6m. Current bills are on our council tax bands page.
  • Services. The report says further savings “are becoming increasingly limited without materially impacting service delivery”. The Cabinet told directors to work with portfolio holders on savings and income proposals. None have been published yet.
  • When you will know. Proposals should appear in the draft budget report to Cabinet in November 2026. The council must set a balanced budget by 11 March 2027.

The projections were drawn up before the government’s Budget on 28 October. The report does not expect it to change local government funding, because councils already have a multi-year settlement to 2028/29. The outlook also sits alongside the pause in local government reorganisation.

Sources